The role of endogenous and exogenous uncertainty in critical incident decision making: An example from hostage negotiation

Introduction: This study examined the impact of uncertainty during a simulated live hostage negotiation training event for police officers. Method: The nature and origin of uncertainty was assessed using observational methods of performance (at the time and by reference to video footage), decision logs and post-incident simulated recall semi-structured interviews. Results and discussion: Thematic analysis revealed a dichotomy of uncertainty sources. Early situation assessment phases of decision making, uncertainty was characterised by endogenous sources (uncertainty about the problem situation) such as concern for victim’s welfare. During the plan formulation and implementation of actions, uncertainty was characterised by exogenous sources (uncertainty about management and team) such as low role understanding and trust. Overall, exogenous uncertainty (75%) occurred more frequently than endogenous uncertainty (25%). Naturalistic decision making studies should utilise this dichotomy to assist structured recommendations for uncertainty management research.